Dr. Jackson's comments at the release of the report on January 31, 2012:
It is my pleasure to provide you with the January 2012 Southwest Florida Regional Economic Indicator Report released by the Regional Economic Research Institute at Florida Gulf Coast University.
The advance estimate for Real GDP growth was released on January 27th and showed fourth quarter growth at 2.8 percent. This compares to 1.8 percent growth in the third quarter. Fourth quarter real personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.0 percent compared to 1.7 percent in the third quarter. Real disposable personal income increased by 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter.
The December Bureau of Labor Statistics Establishment Survey showed that national nonfarm payroll employment increased by 200,000, which was larger than the November increase of 100,000. The national December employment increases included 50,000 in transportation and warehousing, 28,000 in retail, 24,000 in leisure and hospitality, 23,000 in health care, and 23,000 in manufacturing. The national unemployment rate has fallen to 8.5 percent, however the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or longer) remains high and is 42.5 percent of all unemployed in December 2011.
The national consumer price index for December 2011 has increased by 3.0 percent over December 2010, primarily driven by a 6.6-percent increase in energy prices and a 4.7-percent increase in food. All items, less food and energy, rose by only 2.2 percent. Core inflation remains subdued and has allowed the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) released a new forecast for Europe predicting negative growth for some European countries in 2012.
The Southwest Florida economy continues to show gains in tourism and consumer purchases which are positive signs. Regional taxable sales were five percent higher from October 2010 to October 2011. Tourism taxes increased by 23.3 percent from November 2010 to November 2011 in Collier County and by 6.4 percent in Charlotte County. Airport passenger traffic at Southwest Florida International decreased by six percent from November 2010 to November 2011. Unemployment rates have fallen but remain high relative to historical long-run rates. Economic growth is expected to be positive this year but below the long-term growth rate of three percent. Issues related to the Federal budget, state budgets, the European sovereign debt issues, and oil prices are likely to create some headwinds.
(24 pages)