Lee EBCS: Fourth Quarter 2026 Report
November 02, 2026 / RERI Research Team
Lee County Executive Business Climate Survey Fourth Quarter 2026 Report
The national economy grew at a faster clip in the third quarter, but a softening labor market, accelerating inflation, and geopolitical headwinds kept consumers, business owners, and policymakers cautious. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), an overall measure of economic activity, grew at an annualized rate of 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2026, accelerating from 2.2 percent in the second quarter. Growth was supported by stronger investment, consumer spending, and government spending, while weaker exports and higher imports partially offset the increase. The labor market remained in a “low-hire, low-fire” environment, with payroll growth averaging only 51,000 jobs per month from July through September, while the unemployment rate ended the quarter at 4.2 percent, unchanged from June. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), rose to 3.7 percent in September 2026, up 0.2 percentage points from June, as energy prices accounted for half of the increase in the index. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, held at 2.6 percent, the same as in June, suggesting these pressures have not yet spread to the broader economy. The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures the prices paid by firms accelerated this quarter, climbing from 5.5 percent in June to 6.3 percent in September, suggesting possible inflationary pressure in the near future.
Despite hard data reflecting growth in the economy, soft data suggests that consumers and business owners continue to feel financial pressures. National consumer sentiment was 48.0 in September 2026, down 5.6 points from September 2025, as concerns surrounding purchasing power continued to dominate consumer views of the economy. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index, a monthly measure of economic health and financial confidence for small businesses, rose 0.5 points from June to 97.9 in September, nearing its 52-year average of 98. However, the NFIB Uncertainty Index, which tracks how unsure small business owners are about future business conditions, stood at 90 in September, well above its historical average of 68. Against this backdrop, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held the federal funds rate at 3.75 to 4.00 percent in October after raising it 25 basis points in September.
Locally, the latest findings from the Lee County Executive Business Climate Survey point to weakening business sentiment. The Executive Business Climate Index slipped 5.7 points from the previous quarter to 47.9, driven by declines in current economic conditions (down 5.7 points), future economic conditions (down 5.8 points), and future industry conditions (down 5.6 points). The Current Hiring Trends index fell 3.3 points to 45.1, consistent with a cooling local labor market. The Future Hiring Trends index, which gauges expectations for hiring over the next 12 months, declined 4.1 points to 49.8, suggesting business owners expect hiring to continue to slow.
Downloads:
Lee County Executive Business Climate Survey Fourth Quarter 2026 Report
Previous Lee County Executive Business Climate Survey Reports
Acknowledgments:
We would like to thank all of the executives that participated in our survey. Without your continued feedback each quarter, our surveys would not be possible. Furthermore, we would also like to thank our partners, the Horizon Council and Lee County Economic Development, for helping make the survey happen.
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