Charlotte EBCS: Fourth Quarter 2025 Report

November 03, 2025 / RERI Research Team

Charlotte County Executive Business Climate Survey Fourth Quarter 2025 Report

Headline numbers for the US economy suggest the economy continues to grow at a sluggish pace. The labor market showed mixed signals, with the number of unemployed people (7.4 million) increasing above the number of job openings (7.2 million) for the first time since April 2021. Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at a 3.0 percent annualized rate in September, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) registered a 2.7 percent increase from last year in August. With inflation somewhat elevated and softer job growth, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximizing employment, began cutting the federal funds rate in the third quarter and currently stands at 3.75-4.00. However, with little data to guide decisions and raising uncertainty, Chairman Powell pointed to a cautious approach moving forward. Their next meeting is in December, but there is still uncertainty on data availability and the ability to have an accurate reading on the economy.

Consumer sentiment fell in the third quarter, sliding 6.6 points from July to September 2025. The Federal Reserve of New York released new data on Consumer Credit with signals of less discretionary card spending and tightening in household budgets. Optimism amongst small businesses eased in the third quarter, showing the first decline in three months, while uncertainty continues to increase, reaching the fourth-highest reading in over 51 years. There is an emerging narrative of a K-shaped economy, as referenced by Chair Powell’s address, based on the earnings reports, which is also being translated into the business world. This may bring additional challenges with a widening gap across income groups and overly reliance on certain industries and larger spenders.

The federal government has been shut down since October 1, 2025, halting or delaying key federal economic releases, including BEA and US Census indicators. More importantly, several federal workers have been furloughed and coming November there is a chance that the shutdown will impact several households who will lose access to their Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) and Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) benefits. Importantly for Southwest Florida, as we enter our high tourism season, the government shutdown may affect our region through flight delays and cancellations due to air traffic controllers staffing issues.

Locally, sentiment amongst surveyed business executives in Charlotte County slowed down in the latest quarter, with the Executive Business Climate Index (EBCI) dropping by 0.9 points to 52.2. This decline was driven by decreases in Current Economic Conditions (down 0.9 points) and Current Business Conditions (down 3.5 points). While Future Economic Conditions slightly improved (up 0.3 points), business leaders signaled a slowdown on current and future hiring and investment plans.

Downloads:

Charlotte County Executive Business Climate Survey Fourth Quarter 2025 Report

Previous Charlotte County Executive Business Climate Survey Reports

Acknowledgments:

We would like to thank all of the executives that participated in our survey. Without your continued feedback each quarter, our surveys would not be possible.