Collier EBCS: Third Quarter 2025 Report
August 04, 2025 / RERI Research Team
Collier County Executive Business Climate Survey Third Quarter 2025 Report
Headline numbers for the US economy suggest that the economy continues to grow at a healthy rate. For instance, the real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of domestic economic activity in our economy, increased at a 3 percent annualized rate for the second quarter, after a first quarter decline of 0.5 percent. These numbers, though, are murky with recent developments in trade and trade policy. As we “look under the hood”, we find that final sales to private domestic purchasers rose only 1.2 percent, down from the 1.9 percent reported last quarter and its lowest reading since the fourth quarter of 2022. The labor market also continued to register low numbers from a historic perspective, measured at 4.1 percent in June. Signs of slowdown also persisted in the labor, with job openings holding steady and quit rates declining. Inflation measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased at a 2.7 percent annualized rate in June, and the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) registered a 2.7 percent increase from last year in quarter 2. Hence, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximizing employment, has decided to maintain rates at its current rate at 4.25 – 4.5 percent. Their next meeting is in September, when they will have two full months of data, and more certainty on tariff levels and their potential effects on the economy.
Overall consumer sentiment declined in the second quarter, but picked back up in June, increasing to 60.7 after dropping to 52.2 in April and May. The Federal Reserve of New York released new data on Household Debt and Credit, showing an increase in debt but lower credit card balances. Optimism amongst small businesses somewhat rebounded in the second quarter, increasing 2.8 points from April to June 2025, registering at 98.6, slightly above the 51-year average of 98. While uncertainty has decreased in this quarter, it is still at a higher level, and this is starting to show in the real economy as evidenced by the spending and investment patterns in the GDP numbers.
Locally, sentiment amongst surveyed business executives in Collier County improved in the latest quarter, with the Executive Business Climate Index (EBCI) inching up 2.2 points to 43.9. This increase was driven by improvements in future outlooks for both economic conditions (up 6.0 points) and business conditions (up 1.2 points). From the labor market perspective, hiring trends over the past 12 months fell in the third quarter (down 3.2 points), but expectations in hiring conditions over the next year improved (up 3.9 points). The recent slowdown in hiring is supported by the rising unemployment rate experienced locally, which rose 0.6 percentage points from June 2024 to June 2025. Future Investment Trends amongst business executives surveyed improved 3.2 points in the third quarter, suggesting upward pressure in increasing investment over the next year. Taxable sales, a proxy for economic growth, have slowly declined in Collier County since 2024.
Downloads:
Collier County Executive Business Climate Survey Third Quarter 2025 Report
Previous Collier County Executive Business Climate Survey Reports
Acknowledgments:
We would like to thank all of the executives that participated in our survey. Without your continued feedback each quarter, our surveys would not be possible. Furthermore, we would also like to thank our project partners, Collier County Government and the Greater Naples Chamber of Commerce, for helping make the survey happen.
