Charlotte EBCS: Second Quarter 2025 Report
May 02, 2025 / RERI Research Team
Charlotte County Executive Business Climate Survey Second Quarter 2025 Report
Hard data available at the national level would suggest that the economy remains resilient despite some evidence of slowing growth. The labor market did not waver, with the national unemployment rate measuring at 4.2 percent in March, staying within the range often considered “full employment” by economists. Inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), reported at 2.4 percent in March 2025, coming in below economist forecasts. Advanced estimates for real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), a measure of domestic economic activity in our economy, decreased at a 0.3 percent annualized rate for the first quarter, it’s first decline since the first quarter of 2022.
However, soft data collected from surveys suggest that people and businesses aren’t feeling good about the economy. Consumer sentiment fell nationally, declining 19.5 points from January to March 2025. Consumers viewed risks from multiple facets of the economy, attributed largely to uncertainty surrounding recent trade developments and potential rising inflation in the months ahead. Optimism amongst small businesses also waned in the first quarter, falling 5.4 points from January to March 2025. Similar to consumers, concerns surrounding inflation remain at the top of business owners minds.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), which has a dual mandate of stable prices and maximizing employment, met twice during the first quarter of 2025, opting to hold rates at its current rate at 4.25 – 4.5 percent. Projection materials from the FOMC’s March meeting continue to suggest the committee might reign in rate cuts in 2025, showing two projected rate cuts throughout the rest of the year. This cautious approach reflects growing uncertainty surrounding policy from the administration, which could potentially impact both employment and inflation.
Locally, sentiment amongst Charlotte County business executives, as measured by the Executive Business Climate Index (EBCI), slipped 2.1 points from the previous quarter to 52.0. All three indices that comprise the EBCI fell, led by a 3.2-point drop in Future Industry Conditions and a 2.9-point decline in Future Economic Conditions. From the labor force perspective, Current Hiring Trends rose 0.8 points from the previous quarter to 47.8, while Future Hiring Trends fell 1.4 points. The county has seen an uptick in unemployment over the past 12 months, with the local unemployment rate rising 0.6 percentage points from March 2024 to March 2025. Future Investment Trends, which measures how investment will change over the upcoming 12 months, fell 0.3 points, suggesting a slight slowdown in economic growth. Taxable sales, a proxy for economic growth in the area, have slowly declined since 2024.
The survey also asked questions related to business owner expectations surrounding trade and immigration policy. Our survey itself ran during a period in which reciprocal tariffs were both announced (April 2) and delayed (April 9), exemplifying the uncertain landscape that business owners face. Regarding tariff impacts, 35 percent of responding business owners were concerned about the potential impact that tariff policies would have on their business, while 41 percent were not concerned at all. When asked about how they felt about how tariffs would impact the Southwest Florida economy, 39 percent expressed concern while 36 percent were not concerned. Immigration garnered less concern overall for business owners, with only 15 percent of responding owners expressing concern on how immigration policies would impact their business and 25 percent concerned how the policies would impact the regional economy. Respondent comments underscored the divide observed in this survey, with many noting both apprehension and optimism about policy outcomes.
Downloads:
Charlotte County Executive Business Climate Survey Second Quarter 2025 Report
Acknowledgments:
We would like to thank all of the executives that participated in our survey. Without your continued feedback each quarter, our surveys would not be possible.
